Will Willie Cauley-Stein Develop a Respectable 3-Point Shot?

Willie Cauley-Stein recently released a video showcasing his remarkable 3-point shooting, claiming himself to be a "Larry the Splash Uncle." However, will this newfound confidence translate into a respectable 3-point shot in the NBA, or is it just a one-off performance?

Free Throw Shooting: A Determinant Factor

One of the key indicators in evaluating a player's potential for developing a 3-point shot is their ability to hit free throws. If they shoot well at the free-throw line, it suggests a natural aptitude for shooting overall. Conversely, poor free-throw shooting can indicate a lack of this fundamental skill.

Willie Cauley-Stein's career free-throw percentage stands at a modest 61%, with just 55% last season. This suggests a need for improvement. The theory underpinning free-throw ability is that it reflects a player's overall shooting mechanics. Those with natural ability and a better understanding of shooting tend to excel at free throws.

3-Point Shooting: An Unproven Skill?

Cauley-Stein's 3-point shooting last season was quite impressive, shooting at a 50% accuracy rate. However, this performance was quite inconsistent, as he made only one of two 3-point attempts per game, with a career 22% success rate. This small sample size does not provide strong evidence of his ability to replicate such performance regularly.

Comparing him to Steph Curry, who is considered one of the all-time great 3-point shooters, highlights the disparity. Steph Curry's overall accuracy is significantly higher, making it clear that although Cauley-Stein can hit 3-pointers at times, his consistency is a matter of concern.

Deep 2-Point Shooting: A Mix of Opportunity and Willingness

While Cauley-Stein has shot 34 from deep 2-point range (15–19 feet), this is not exceptionally high, indicating that his shooting effectiveness diminishes with distance. However, the fact that he took nearly one shot a game from this distance shows his willingness to shoot beyond the key, which is a positive sign.

Offensive Rebounding

Willie Cauley-Stein's offensive rebounding skills are average, ranking 45th in offensive rebounding per 36 minutes. In comparison, Kevon Looney, a more proficient rebounder, ranks 9th. This average performance, while not ideal, is not a major hindrance. If Cauley-Stein stands around the perimeter waiting for an open shot, his offensive rebounding numbers are likely to decrease. However, his current standing does not significantly affect his potential for 3-point shooting.

Form and Natural Ability

Observing the video, Cauley-Stein's shooting form appears relatively decent. His release over his head and the smooth rotation on the shot suggest no apparent issues that would prevent him from developing a 3-point shot. This positive form provides a basis for optimism about his potential.

NBA Comparable: Joel Embiid

Joel Embiid serves as a useful NBA comparable. Embiid, despite being a strong offensive player, only shot 30% from 3-point range but attempted 4 shots per game. His success at the free-throw line (80%) would suggest that Cauley-Stein's development in this area could be more challenging. Cauley-Stein would need to improve his free-throw shooting, which would limit his offensive focus on the 3-point line.

Prediction

In practice, Cauley-Stein may exhibit impressive 3-point shooting, leading to optimistic quotes from coaches and players. However, in game situations, he is likely to start taking 3-point shots, but his accuracy will likely be in the 27-30% range. During post-game press conferences, coach Steve Kerr may shift the focus to Cauley-Stein's role in cutting to the basket on pick-and-roll plays rather than depending on 3-point shooting. This shift could drain any remaining optimism and see the emphasis on 3-point shooting dwindle.