The Myth of "Tanking" in Pro Sports: An Examination of Draft Strategy

In recent years, the term "tanking" has become a common phrase in professional sports, particularly in basketball and football. This practice refers to a team intentionally losing games to improve their draft position. But does this really elevate a team's position, or is it a sound strategy as some suggest? Let's delve into the history and statistics to uncover the truth.

Tanking in Football

It is almost unheard of for a pro sports team to intentionally lose games to elevate their position in an upcoming draft. The players on the field and the coaching staff are always focused on winning. However, the front office might sometimes make strategic decisions that involve losing games to build a stronger foundation for the future. This strategy is particularly common in the National Football League (NFL). Let's explore some historical examples and statistics.

Backward Example: Montreal's 1970s Strategy

Back in the early 1970s, the Montreal Canadiens (Habs) acquired the Seals' first draft pick. They intentionally lost games to ensure the Seals would finish last, which would give the Habs their coveted first pick. This strategy worked, as they selected Guy Lafleur and built a new dynasty. However, this is a unique and isolated incident.

Notable FIFA 1980s Champions

Chase Stewart in his blog post on Pro Football Reference examined the NFL's history of teams tanking for a championship. His findings revealed that teams that performed poorly often managed to win within a short timeframe. For example, the 1989 Dallas Cowboys went 1-15 and won the Super Bowl three seasons later. Similarly, the 1979 San Francisco 49ers went 2-14 and won the Super Bowl two years later.

According to the data, only three teams in the modern Super Bowl era managed to go from a losing record to win a Super Bowl within three seasons:

1999 St. Louis Rams 1981 San Francisco 49ers 2001 New England Patriots

Only a handful of other teams, such as the 1969 Miami Dolphins, 1983 New York Giants, and 1978 San Francisco 49ers, managed to reach the championship by winning a losing record season and then having a good year. The majority of teams going through a terrible season did not succeed in winning the Super Bowl or even make it to the championship in the next few seasons. This suggests that tanking for a championship might not be as effective as some believe.

Modern NFL Draft Analysis

Despite the historical evidence, some argue that in the modern NFL, having a great quarterback is crucial to winning. Even if a team stinks, they have a chance at getting a top pick, potentially a future star quarterback like Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. However, the success rate of the NFL's top overall picks is dismal. Out of the last 13 top picks overall, four have been outright busts (Couch, Brown, Carr, Russell), one went to jail (Vick), and another is still a question mark (Alex Smith).

Only 6/13 of these top overall picks have been successful, with the majority failing to meet expectations. This data suggests that tanking a season to get a top overall pick may not always be the best strategy, as it often results in disappointment.

Tanking in Basketball

Before the NBA Draft Lottery, it made absolute sense to intentionally lose games to get the top pick. Teams understood that one player could be the difference between 66 and 19 wins. For example, in 2004, when the New Jersey Nets needed to win the draft lottery to get the first overall pick to secure Vince Carter, they intentionally lost games. However, the success rate of NBA's top overall picks is also quite low. Only three of the last 13 top picks were major busts (Kwame Brown, Michael Olowokandi, Greg Oden), while others like Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James were much more successful.

Out of the 13 top picks, four were probably worth tanking for, and five if you count Cleveland drafting Kevin Love with the first overall pick over Oden in a hypothetical redo. The fact that some of the top picks like Kyrie Irving and John Wall have not yet fulfilled their potential suggests that tanking might not always yield the desired results.

Tanking in Hockey

Before the NHL instituted a draft lottery, tanking games to secure a high draft pick was a common strategy in hockey. Teams like the 1983 Pittsburgh Penguins and the 1980s New Jersey Devils intentionally lost games to secure the top picks. For instance, the Penguins traded their best defenseman and promoted a minor league goalie in the final four games of their season, which resulted in the lock-up of the 1983-84 Entry Draft's first pick. Similarly, the Devils acquired Kirk Muller with the second pick, but in hindsight, it is clear that they would have chosen Mario Lemieux if they had the chance.

Conclusion

The practice of tanking in pro sports is complex and often debated. While it might seem like a logical strategy in the short term, historical data suggests that it does not always lead to the desired results. Teams like the Cowboys, 49ers, and Penguins demonstrate that while it is possible to win a championship after a terrible season, it is not a common occurrence. Similarly, the struggles of many top overall NFL and NBA draft picks highlight the risks associated with this strategy.

In conclusion, while tanking might seem appealing in the short term, the long-term success rate of this strategy is questionable. Teams should carefully consider their options and the potential outcomes before making such decisions.