The Declining NFL Draft Class of Underclassmen and Its Impact on College Football and the NFL

The number of underclassmen declaring for the NFL Draft has dropped to 58 for the 2024 season, marking the smallest number since 2011. This trend may continue, and its implications for college football and the NFL are multifaceted and significant.

The Decline in Underclassmen Declaring for the NFL Draft

This year, only 58 underclassmen are considering declaring for the 2024 NFL Draft, which is substantially lower than previous years. Many of these players are redshirt freshmen, meaning they have another year to potentially earn a good paycheck while staying in college. By the end of next year, most of them will have completed their college eligibility and may have a better chance of being drafted into the NFL.

Encouraging a Growing Trend

It is hoped that this trend continues and even grows. The NFL should strive to encourage all college students to complete their education before entering the professional ranks. Underclassmen may be rethinking their decisions because they see that staying an additional year in college provides better opportunities for a long, successful NFL career. This not only benefits the individual players but also improves the overall quality of play in the NFL.

The NFL Draft Pool and Player Development

The total number of players drafted each year is 259, out of approximately 73,712 NCAA college football players, representing only a 1.6% chance of making it to the NFL. After the yearly draft, this percentage becomes even smaller. For college players, the average NFL career is a mere 3.3 years, with running backs averaging only 2.6 years. The NFL draft pool is limited, which means that every player drafted has a very high chance of having a career in the league.

The Impact on NFL and College Football

The trend of underclassmen staying in college likely means a more developed draft pool of college players who have a better chance of having a sustained career in the NFL. This development period can greatly improve a player's skill set and attract the attention of NFL scouts. Consequently, the NFL will experience better role players, as these players have had one extra year of intense development and are more well-rounded upon entry into the league.

The NFL dogma often values developed and seasoned players. College football functions as a farm system for the NFL. Just like in baseball, where players develop in the Minor Leagues, college players are expected to enter the NFL with a solid grasp of their positions and the game. However, in the past, too many players, even those with lower to mid-level NFL potential, chose to enter the draft prematurely. The NFL is not a league focused on player development; aspiring players need to have their skills honed before entering the league. Even first, second, and third-round draft picks with excellent physical skills are only given one to three years to develop their fundamentals.

Benefits of the Transfer Portal and NIL

The transfer portal and the growing pool of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) opportunities encourage players to stay an additional year in college. This extra time allows players to develop their skills more fully and, with the right coaching, can significantly improve their chances of being successful in the NFL. As players enter the league better developed, both physically and mentally, the level of play in the NFL is likely to rise, especially as injuries mount and experienced players age.

Furthermore, college play will benefit as well. Many of the college stars who would have left early due to promising NFL prospects will now have another year or two to improve their performance. With 134 Division 1A FBS college programs and only 32 NFL teams, there is a significant number of college players who, despite their individual talent, may have left too soon to maximize their potential. By staying in college, they can refine their abilities and improve their chances of success in the NFL and at the collegiate level.

The future of college football and the NFL is intertwined, and a trend of underclassmen staying an extra year in college can significantly enhance the overall quality of both. The NFL should continue to promote and encourage this trend to ensure a more robust and developed talent pool for the league.