Predicting Star Wars: The Last Jedi's Box Office Success

When discussing box office revenues, many people focus on the North American market, where the gold standard for measurement is clear and consistent. However, the worldwide box office is more complex, influenced by numerous factors such as currency exchange rates, local holiday traditions, and even scandals. In North America, Star Wars: The Last Jedi is expected to open with a figure ranging from 175 million to 250 million, and an opening of 225 million is quite possible. Given the typical 3.0 multiple for holiday season box office earnings, this suggests an impressive 800 million in the US alone, which, considering the Star Wars franchise's global appeal, could translate into a range of 1.4 billion to 1.75 billion worldwide.

Domestic vs. International Earnings

The Star Wars franchise typically achieves international box office numbers that are a bit higher than domestic ones. A reasonable estimate is to project 850 million in international revenue, bringing the total worldwide box office earnings to around 1.625 billion. To give you a sense of how varied these predictions can be, the Force Awakens US opening brought in close to 933 million, making a full 1.4 billion worldwide, showing that even with these projections, the range can be quite broad.

Moving Past the Hype

Initially, the trailer for The Last Jedi excited with its promise, suggesting a potential box office performance comparable to The Force Awakens. However, the release of a teaser clip showing the character BB-8 squawking, which fans are interpreting as foreshadowing a dark turn in the story, has raised doubts. In light of this, a consensus is building that the movie is likely to gross between 300 and 400 million, significantly less than the 933 million of The Force Awakens. The ongoing hype for a new Star Wars film is expected to sustain only until the release of the eighth installment, at which point the enthusiasm may wane.

International Box Office Factors

The international box office is expected to compare favorably with that of The Force Awakens, which grossed 550 million worldwide in 12 days, making a total of 1 billion. However, several factors could impact these numbers:

Hollywood Box Office Performance: The past year has seen poor box office results, with traditional big-budget films lagging behind in revenue. Comic book movies have performed reasonably well, but The Last Jedi could be penalized due to recent industry scandals. This factor could result in a 200 million penalty. Investment in Sequels: The sequel's story elements and subtle hints have been well-received, suggesting the franchise's continued appeal. Fans, curious viewers, and even those tired of current political issues might flock to The Last Jedi, balancing out potential penalties. The benefit and penalty in this factor equal 0. Global Economic Activity: If the US Congress passes a tax cut that benefits regular citizens, they are likely to spend more, potentially increasing holiday box office numbers. This could act as a 50-100 million benefit. If the U.S. is in a period of economic growth, the movie could perform even better, adding another factor of 50 million.

Conclusion

Considering all these factors, the international box office for Star Wars: The Last Jedi could range from 400 million to 750 million, making it a significant success or a below-average performance depending on the release circumstances. While a detailed prognosis can be challenging, the franchise's global appeal and ongoing popularity suggest a reasonable forecast for a substantial worldwide box office performance. Let’s hope for the best as we look forward to watching Rey and Ben fall in love!