How Does Buddy Hield Project as an NBA Player?

Buddy Hield is a shooting point guard who has the potential to become the next Stephen Curry, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Reggie Miller, or Ray Allen—all legendary mobile shooters known for their incredible scoring ability. Hield excels in handling and shooting on the move, once he gets going, he is nearly impossible to contain.

Draft Prospects and NBA Potential

At this current stage, Buddy Hield is projected as a top 5 pick, but only because the draft class of the past decade has been exceptionally weak. Hield is not particularly lengthy or athletic, nor is he a strong defender or point guard. His role in the NBA is likely to be as a spot shooter, utilizing his impressive shooting skills to contribute to the team.

Expert analysis often divides draft prospects into three tiers:

Players who are likely to succeed, Players who may or may not make it depending on their development, Players who are unlikely to make it.

Buddy Hield clearly falls into the second tier. He possesses the raw talent to become a valuable player in the NBA, evidenced by his scoring ability. However, his weak physical attributes, such as his 6'4.5" height and average athleticism, will need to be mitigated through other skills.

Analysis of Hield's NBA Potential

Buddy Hield's scoring prowess is apparent; he averaged 25.1 points per game, knocking down 3-pointers at a 45.8% clip, and maintained an outstanding 66.4 true shooting percentage. However, his offensive versatility remains a concern. His shooting from the perimeter is lauded, but his defense and playmaking skills are questionable.

At 22, Hield's physical attributes are fixed. To succeed in the NBA, he will need to excel in either playmaking or become a top-tier shooter. The most similar model for Hield is CJ McCollum, another smaller guard who has found success in the NBA through his shooting and playmaking abilities. However, Hield's college career indicates that he may find it difficult to improve in both areas.

For Hield to become a top-tier playmaker, he would need to emulate the development of players like McCollum, but this path is uncertain. It is more plausible that Hield will focus on becoming a shooting specialist like JJ Redick or Kyle Korver. This would be one of the most difficult tasks; he would need to become one of the top ten jump shooters in the league. Given the increased distance in the NBA (3 feet farther) and the competitiveness of the league, it is neither a sure nor an easy bet.

Projections and Future Outlook

While Hield has the potential to succeed, he is not without his weaknesses. His defensive liability and lack of playmaking skills are significant concerns. Hield's ability to score from the perimeter is commendable, but he must address these issues to become a well-rounded player.

Personally, I hope Buddy Hield thrives in the NBA. His scoring ability and playmaking potential make him an exciting prospect. He has the moxie and likability that can make him a memorable player. Entering the league at a time when shooting is highly valued, Hield is projected to be drafted in the second half of the lottery picks (8-14), which is a reasonable estimate based on his skills and college performance.

While there is a possibility that Hield could become a star, starter, or a role player, the risk of him becoming a bust is not entirely negligible. Here is how I estimate his potential outcomes:

Star: 5% Starter: 35% Role player: 35% Bust: 25%

To reach the top tiers, Hield must improve drastically in either of the two areas—playmaking or shooting. If he is able to do so, his NBA career could be quite successful. If not, the developmental limitations may hinder his growth.