Padres' Chances of Reaching the Second Wild Card: An Analysis

Given the remaining schedule of the San Diego Padres, reaching the second wild card spot by the end of the 2021 season is a significant challenge. Despite their past success, the team's recent performance and upcoming fixtures paint a challenging picture for their playoff aspirations.

The Current State of the Padres

The current situation for the Padres is dire. In the last 11 games, they have a woeful 2-9 record and were swept by the Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks, losing three out of four games. Their pitching has been particularly problematic, and the remainder of the season looks equally tough. They still have 10 games left against the Giants and nine against the Dodgers, who are the two best teams in the MLB. Additionally, they face three games each against the Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, and St. Louis Cardinals.

The Reds as the Major Competitors

In stark contrast, the Cincinnati Reds have been on a winning streak. They have won the last four games, which presents a significant hurdle for the Padres. The Reds will primarily face teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, giving them an easier path in the remaining games. With nine games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, four against the Nationals, three each against the Cubs and Marlins, and three against the Detroit Tigers, the Reds’ schedule is vastly more favorable.

Remaining Schedule and Pitching Concerns

The difficult remaining schedule for the Padres cannot be overstated. Their pitching issues have further complicated their chances. Specifically, their starts against the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks, which have the worst records in the division, have hindered their chances. This poor performance may have already sealed their fate in the playoff race. The Padres’ pitching struggles, particularly with players like Paddack and Snell, have been a major factor in their decline.

Recently, the Padres also lost a three-game series in Philadelphia and were swept by the Rockies. This spells trouble, especially considering their next major test is a three-game series against the hot Reds, followed by the formidable Dodgers. With only a one-game lead, the outcome of this series will significantly impact their standings.

Recent Developments and Governance Changes

Some recent changes within the Padres organization may also shed light on their future. Releasing Rothschild, the former pitching coach, was a critical decision. Rothschild’s rigid approach to pitching and his seemingly negative impact on players like Snell and Paddack suggest that his influence contributed to the team’s struggles. Moving forward, how the new coaching staff manages the pitching rotation and boosts team morale will be crucial to their success.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the Padres still have a chance to reach the second wild card spot, the odds are currently less than 50%. The remaining schedule, coupled with their recent performances and struggling pitching, make a difficult path ahead. Unsolved pitching issues and a challenging series against the hot Reds and Dodgers in the coming weekend will be key factors in determining their playoff fate.