Out of St. Louis, San Diego, and Oakland: Which Market is Most and Least Likely to Get a NFL Franchise?

When it comes to the potential relocation of NFL teams, several factors come into play, including stadium availability, economic stability, and community support. In this analysis, we explore the current positions and future prospects for St. Louis, San Diego, and Oakland, determining which market is most and least likely to attract a new NFL franchise if their existing teams move to Los Angeles.

Introduction to NFL Team Relocation

The NFL is one of the most popular sports leagues in the United States, and team relocation can significantly impact the landscape of NFL markets. Over the years, numerous markets have seen their teams relocate due to various reasons, including financial struggles, stadium issues, and strategic decisions. This article delves into the specific circumstances of St. Louis, San Diego, and Oakland, assessing their potential to attract new franchises if they lose their current teams to Los Angeles.

St. Louis: The Best Candidate for a New NFL Franchise

1. St. Louis stands out as the most likely candidate to receive a new NFL franchise. The city faces the significant challenge of losing the St. Louis Rams, but it also has a substantial advantage in terms of market size and infrastructure. St. Louis is the largest US market without an NFL team, and the presence of a stadium plan in place further strengthens its position. This makes it a prime location for the league to expand its footprint and cater to a diverse, passionate fanbase.

Stadium Plan and Infrastructure

The St. Louis market boasts an existing stadium plan, which significantly improves its prospects. The league is often keen on expanding its presence in major metropolitan areas, and St. Louis fits this criteria well. The city also has a strong tradition of supporting professional sports, and the potential loss of the Rams would create a formidable opportunity to attract a new franchise. The league has shown a willingness to invest in infrastructure in regions that demonstrate a strong demand and the capability to attract and retain a franchise.

San Diego: A Potential Return for the Chargers

2. San Diego is another market with significant potential for an NFL franchise. The San Diego Chargers could potentially share a stadium in Los Angeles with either the Raiders or Rams and eventually return to San Diego. Factors such as the lease agreements at Metlife Stadium and similar provisions for stadiums in Carson or Inglewood make this possibility more feasible. Additionally, the city could leverage a decade or more without the Chargers to lure them back, especially if support from both the community and local government remains strong.

Community and Leasing Provisions

The lease agreements of the Giants and Jets at Metlife Stadium, and the potential provisions for the Carson or Inglewood stadiums, offer a blueprint for how San Diego could secure a franchise. If the Chargers are willing to share a facility and have the right contractual terms, San Diego could become a viable destination for a new or returning NFL team. The city's infrastructure and community engagement are key factors that could drive this transition.

Oakland: A Market at Risk

3. Oakland faces the highest risk of losing its NFL teams, particularly as the Golden State Warriors are set to move to San Francisco and possibly the Oakland A’s considering a move to San Jose. If Oakland loses its only remaining team, the Raiders, the likelihood of attracting a new franchise becomes extremely low. Despite Oakland's proximity to San Francisco and the fact that it is closer to the warren than to Santa Clara, where the 49ers moved, the numbers and conditions of the local economic and political climate may not support such a return.

Economic and Political Challenges

The potential loss of the Raiders, compounded by the imminent move of the Warriors and possibly the A’s, exposes Oakland to a severe sports desert. The absence of any public funding for stadiums further diminishes the city's ability to make a convincing case for an NFL team. However, the exceptional growth of the San Francisco Bay Area and Oakland's strategic location offer some hope for future opportunities. The city's resilience and growing popularity could eventually make it appealing to the NFL, but the current challenges are significant.

Conclusion

Based on the current dynamics and future prospects, St. Louis, San Diego, and Oakland stand at varying levels of likelihood to attract a new NFL franchise. St. Louis has the edge due to its size, stadium plan, and support for professional sports. San Diego has the potential to leverage the return of the Chargers, while Oakland faces the highest risk of sports desertification. As the NFL evaluates future expansion and relocation opportunities, these markets' specific strengths and challenges will play a critical role in determining which one sees a new franchise in the coming years.

Keywords

NFL franchise NFL team relocation San Diego Oakland St. Louis