NHL Expansion: Who Will Get There First, Mexico City or Saskatchewan?

The debate over which city will see an NHL team first, Mexico City or Saskatchewan, has been a topic of speculation for years. However, the decision ultimately comes down to financial and strategic interests. NHL teams, especially, have traditionally been influenced by the power and interests of the United States. Despite the enthusiasm of idealistic supporters, the reality is that the financial and logistical challenges may hinder Mexico City’s aspirations in the near future.

Historical Context and Challenges

There is a long-standing history of US control over the NHL. In the 1980s, for instance, the St. Louis Blues nearly moved to Saskatoon. However, the league blocked these moves, along with similar proposals in Edmonton, Calgary, and Winnipeg. These cities’ strategic locations and financial potential were evaluated, and Saskatoon ultimately lost out. This historical precedence suggests that the NHL would likely be cautious about expanding to a new market unless the potential benefits outweigh the costs.

Financial and Economic Considerations

One of the primary considerations for NHL expansion is the financial viability of a new market. In Mexico City, for instance, there is a population of over 21 million, compared to just a million in the province of Saskatchewan. While Mexico City’s large population provides a potential fan base, the financial landscape is more intricate. The number of fans with disposable income to support an NHL team is limited, and diverting resources from smaller markets could threaten the sustainability of those leagues.

In contrast, Saskatchewan faces significant challenges. The province’s population of approximately one million is spread across a vast area, which makes it difficult to establish a strong financial base. Additionally, the limited number of NHL aspirants in smaller communities would struggle to compete with well-established hockey programs in larger cities. The idea of draining funds from smaller leagues to support a new NHL expansion in Saskatchewan could be seen as unsustainable.

Mexico’s Aspirations and Reality

While there is enthusiasm in Mexico about the potential of having an NHL team, the reality is that the country lacks a robust hockey culture. Mexico only recently began to grow its interest in the sport, which means that developing a competitive and dedicated player pool would take considerable time and resources. The competition for spots in the NHL is notoriously fierce, and just because a player is talented does not mean they will make it to the top level.

A personal anecdote from a long-time NHL supporter illustrates this point. A friend of mine worked tirelessly to help his son pursue an NHL career but found that despite his talent, the competitive environment did not allow him to advance beyond the lower levels. This story underscores the challenges of developing and maintaining a strong hockey culture in Mexico.

Conclusion

While the idea of an NHL team in either Mexico City or Saskatchewan is exciting, the practical challenges are significant. Mexico City, with its large population, may be seen as the more likely candidate for expansion by the NHL, although it is uncertain when, if ever, this will happen. Saskatchewan, despite its rich hockey history, may face too many logistical and financial hurdles to compete for expansion.

As of now, neither city looks like a strong candidate, but continued efforts by both Mexico and Saskatchewan to build out their hockey cultures and attract financial support could eventually change the equation, though it may take years to achieve.