Is Trey Lance the Best Option for the 49ers? A Critical Analysis

It's been a perplexing move by the 49ers to trade up to the third pick in the NFL draft for Trey Lance, and many experts, including myself, have lingering questions about the wisdom of this decision. Let's break down the reasoning behind the move and explore the potential outcomes.

Why the Decision to Trade Up?

The decision by the 49ers to give up their first-round picks in both 2021 and 2022 for the third pick was a bold move, but it raises several questions. The original draft saw both Justin Fields and Mac Jones falling into the teens, leaving room for speculation about how things would have played out had the 49ers not traded up. However, the reality is different.

Competitive Landscape

Several teams with picks near the 49ers stood to benefit from this scenario, particularly the Dolphins, who were likely to trade down to avoid drafting a quarterback. The New England Patriots, under Bill Belichick, were unlikely to make a major move up the board for a quarterback. Similarly, the Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Eagles, and Broncos all seemed content with their quarterback situations, suggesting they would not be taking one.

Pure Asset Management

The 49ers may have overplayed their hand in this situation. They already have a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, who has proven to be quite effective and was part of the team that reached the Super Bowl in 2019. Taking Lance as the third pick, especially after giving up two of their own first-round picks, means addressing the complexities that come with a top pick.

Decision-Making Process

John Lynch, the General Manager of the 49ers, may rely too heavily on mock drafts, which tend to have a agendas of their own. Mock drafts often overestimate the speed at which elite quarterback prospects will be selected, leading to overly aggressive moves. The 49ers had a more ideal scenario: they could have waited at pick 12 and seen if Lance would fall, securing a top talent without the pressures associated with a top-three pick.

Contingency Planning

The 49ers had a well-thought-out plan if they missed out on Lance. They could have retooled their roster with other assets, allowing them to wait and see if Lance would be available later. In the current situation, however, the 49ers are now faced with the challenge of making Lance their franchise quarterback, a position that comes with significant pressure.

The Future Uncertainty

The expectations surrounding Lance are immense, as he was the biggest project of the 2023 class, with the most intriguing upside. However, the 49ers need Jimmy Garoppolo to maintain his good play to entice a trade partner willing to part with at least a first-round pick to recoup their lost assets. If this does not happen, the 49ers will face a significant challenge.

Conclusion

While Lance is a talented quarterback with immense potential, the 49ers may have mismanaged their assets in this move. The trade to get Lance as the third pick was a bold move, but at what cost? The team now faces the challenge of turning Lance into the franchise quarterback they hope he will be, or reevaluating their strategy if this proves to be beyond their reach.