College Football Playoff Decisions: Regular Season Games vs. Conference Championships

When it comes to determining the teams that make it to the College Football Playoff, the decisions can often be influenced by a variety of factors, both in the regular season and the conference championships. This article will delve into the weighing of regular season games against conference championship games, using a hypothetical example of the Syracuse Orange and the Clemson Tigers to illustrate the dynamics.

Impact of Early Season and Conference Games

The regular season is the primary period for gaining momentum and establishing a team's credentials. However, the Conference Championship game takes on significant importance in the overall evaluation as it gets closer to the season's conclusion. Only four conferences get to play for the NCAA championship in the Bowl division, and these games can often be the deciding factor.

For instance, consider a hypothetical scenario where the Syracuse Orange defeats the Clemson Tigers in the regular season but loses to them in the ACC Championship. When evaluating the teams, the committee members often focus on recency, as the most recent game a voter will remember well.

Recency Factor and Weighted Impact

The last memorable game plays a crucial role in the committee's and poll voters' decision-making, meaning the ACC Championship game likely would hold more weight.

If Clemson remains 12-1 following the ACC Championship, they likely would secure a playoff spot, as the current format generally doesn't allow unranked teams to make the playoffs, especially with only a single loss. Similarly, Syracuse, with both wins and losses, would struggle to get any recognition without further convincing performances or additional positive factors.

Conversely, if Clemson is still 11-1

In another scenario, if Clemson remains 11-1 going into the ACC Championship, this game might still be pivotal. However, a significant margin in the regular season victory alongside a convincing performance in the ACC Championship, or even a close game where Clemson's typically robust defense and offense maintained their performance, would certainly give the committee and poll voters pause. The regular season game that showcased the Orange's potential against Clemson would weigh heavily in their deliberations.

Recency and Other Factors

The committee and poll voters also consider the context and circumstances of the game. For example, if Syracuse beat Clemson convincingly in October while facing a formidable team, this regular-season victory would carry more weight. However, if the Syracuse loss in the November ACC Championship was in a one-point, rainstorm-affected game with a key player out, the committee might still favor Syracuse based on the regular season's dominant performance and the recency of the ACC Championship game.

Less Weight on Early Season Games

The early season games, while still important in establishing a team's reputation, tend to carry less weight as the season progresses. Conference championships become the culminating focus, where the deciding factors include the overall strength, consistency, and performance of the team.

Thus, while early season games provide a foundation, the conference championship ultimately decides the viability for the playoffs. Teams like the Orange and Tigers must secure strong showings in their conference games to remain contenders, as these games have the final say in playoff considerations.