How Far Will the 2021 Knicks Make It Through the Playoffs?

It is my contention that the 2021 New York Knicks are capable of advancing beyond the first round of the playoffs. A strong defensive presence could be the blueprint for their success in the postseason, but how far can they realistically go?

Defense as the Blueprint for Contending

The Knicks are not a team to be underestimated. They boast a solid defensive foundation, which is crucial for their overall performance. Their defensive metrics, such as opponents' points per game (OPP PPG), are among the top in the league, indicating a strong defensive strategy. This is more important than simply scoring points themselves, as it directly impacts their ability to control the game.

Offensive Dependence and Limitations

Offensively, the Knicks are heavily reliant on Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle, which limits their scoring average. However, they excel in their opponents' field goal percentage (OPP FG%), indicating they are restricting scoring chances for their opponents effectively. The alignment of defensive metrics, particularly OPP PPG and OPP FG%, suggests that the Knicks' defense is performing well, even if the pacing of the game is slower.

The Knicks rank third in OPP PPG, while their offensive pace is among the slowest in the league, with only Denver averaging less possessions per game. Despite this, their defensive stats do not appear to be inflated or deflated artificially. Their points per game differential (PPG diff) is also strong, suggesting a balance between defensive and scoring capabilities.

First and Second Round Prospects

With Milwaukee potentially waiting in the second round, the Knicks must rely on their defensive prowess. Historically, teams with defensive liabilities have struggled in the playoffs, and Milwaukee's experience last year supports this. To counter this, the Knicks need to focus on defensive adjustments and ensuring that their opponents are under pressure.

Based on the current situation, I predict that the Knicks could challenge for a first or second round victory. Versus a team like Milwaukee or any other opponent with a solid defense, the Knicks may face a tough challenge, especially if key players like Brunson or Randle are limited in their performance.

Offseason Moves and Future Potential

Adding Bojan Bogdanovic was a positive move, but it also comes at a considerable financial cost. This contract leaves the Knicks without any free agency flexibility this summer. However, this situation could be seen as a boon for the franchise long-term. The Knicks payroll remains stable, and after the next season, Bojan and Oladipo (OG) will be off the books, giving the Knicks a good chance to sign a max-level player by the summer of 2025.

Without a superstar or two key players, the Knicks are currently a strong squad capable of causing problems for any team that isn't playing at their best. However, facing three teams in the playoffs, each outperforming their average, is unrealistic, and the Knicks will need significant talent to win a championship.

Conclusion

While the Knicks have a solid foundation, their path to the NBA Finals is less likely unless they can address their weaknesses and find the necessary star power. Continued defensive tenacity and careful strategic planning will be crucial for their playoff success.